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How's the Market?

I get this question all the time as a real estate agent. Rather than taking one agent's word for how it is giving a general idea, it's better to look at the data, and there are some strong sources that I can point to for exactly that. The market in 2023 is such that it's the least good time to buy in Hampton Roads in years. I wouldn't go as far to say as it being a "bad" time to buy, but I would say that it's a higher risk time to buy than we've seen in a long time.

The Below are Optimized for Desktop/Laptop Rather than Mobile Devices

Key Hampton Roads Housing Market Metrics
As you can see below, prices came up & down considerably more in 2022 than in the prior few years

The below metric makes me not as concerned as I would be otherwise about the lowest demand in decades recently.

Key US Housing Market Metrics
The 4 graphs below are what have me concerned:

US Housing Prices Over Time:

We see here that the recent rate of increase was faster than that of the bubble burst, & that prices have started coming down in a way not seen in years in a number of parts of the US, even though they haven't come down yet year over year in Hampton Roads:

Housing for Sale vs for Rent Price Comparison
A strong indicator of the health of the housing market is the sales price vs price to rent. While rents have recently increased, sales price increases have outpaced the rent increase, but as you can see, recently a correction has begun, with house prices for sale (when you factor in interest rates etc.) falling faster than rent prices. Also recently, rent prices have been coming down.

Housing Price Change vs Prior Year Comparison
To me, this next graph is possibly the scariest I've seen, showing clearly how the price increase that occurred recently was faster than the bubble shift in 2006, but has been rapidly coming down faster than it did in that time.

Privately Owned Housing Units Started (New Construction)
As with 2006, the rate of new construction coming down is a strong indicator of a turn in the market.

Seasonal Trends & Macro Trends

Whether the market is going up or down on a macro level, typically you'll find a low in January (or close to it) & a high in June (or close to it) on an annual basis.

My focus with the 3 options above is primarily going to be on the Hampton Roads market. If looking beyond Hampton Roads, see some options below:

1. Mathews, Gloucester (though REIN has more properties in Gloucester), & other parts of the Middle Peninsula (Chesapeake Bay and Rivers Association of REALTORS®)

2. Richmond, Petersburg, & other parts of the Central Virginia region surrounding Richmond/Petersburg (Central Virginia Regional MLS)

3. Northern Neck MLS & some other local associations, in partnership with the Virginia Association of Realtors, produces quarterly housing reports like this one for Northern Neck MLS for quarter 2, 2022 that I get in the event that anyone would like an up-to-date version for an MLS in SE VA where I have access via membership or otherwise (Northern Neck, REIN, Williamsburg MLS, Chesapeake Bay Area Regional MLS, and Central Virginia Regional MLS).

4. In areas with high crossover MLS (i.e. Gloucester & Williamsburg), and in areas without great resources to regularly go for reports from the above, it's often possible for me to generate market reports for clients & customers who ask. Please let me know if you'd like me to email that to you for a location in SE VA (or outside of SE VA if you're also having me refer you to an agent there, such as this report for Tampa in Florida from 10/20/22).

5. There is some interesting real estate statistical data for the state of VA publicly available here & reports available here.

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