Should You Never Pay "Full" Price for a Home?
When to Be Picky & When to Be Expeditious on Offers
Different Offer Examples of Mine Getting $49k Below Asking vs Winning 8 Offer Scenario
Increased Probability of Below Asking Price
Increased Probability of Above Asking Price
Long market time
Short market time
a long time [i.e. >30 days] since the last substantive [i.e. 3%] price reduction
a short time [i.e. <3 days] since the last substantive [i.e. 3%] price reduction
a long time since it's went back on market or with substantial issues uncovered during last contract or the listing agent not wanting to talk about it
a short time since it's went back on market with minimal issues discovered & transparency from the listing agent (especially if inspections are available)
Lower population density
Higher Population density
Comparable sales don't substantiate list price
Comparable sales easily substantiate list price or more
No improvements &/or significant deterioration since last sale & high Zestimate accuracy factors involved with list price above initial Zestimate price on 1st date of listing
Many improvements since last sale & high Zestimate accuracy factors involved with list price below initial Zestimate price on 1st date of listing
Excellent marketing (i.e. professional photos, aerials, virtual tour, highly detailed listing, placement in >99% MLS, etc.)
Low (i.e. <100%) average % contract price vs list price for area
High (i.e. >100%) average % contract price vs list price for area
Listing agent has typically below asking price sales
Listing agent has typically above asking price sales
To help illustrate the importance of market time, the time since the last substantive price reduction, and the time since the property has been back on the market, note the following differences in the same SE VA city, Suffolk, between a 0-1 day market time and a 60+ day market time, without even factoring in price reductions or properties that previously went under contract.
Here's the figures with 60+ day market time at the bottom 10% of the total #s:
With the top 10% of those #s, they don't mean as much as they would otherwise because they don't factor in price reductions and properties coming recently back on the market.
Let's compare the above with the bottom 10% of properties with a 0-1 day market time in the same time range and place:
As you can see above, the very bottom of the pack was a larger % vs list price versus the long market time numbers, and the bottom 10% even included properties that went at list price.
Real estate is seasonal, so keep in mind too that % sales price vs list price will tend to be lower in the Winter and higher in the late Spring/Early Summer:
Keep in mind with the graph above that time of contract is typically 1 month from closing, so January lows are typically from December contracts.
Tips on Below Asking Price Offers
Escalation Clauses on Below or Above Asking Price Offers
More Tips On Below Or Above Asking Price Offers
Importance of Buyer Brokerage Agreement Before Specific Offer Advice in VA
Competing Offer Spreadsheet (including elements beyond the price that make up a "good" offer)